CFB Analytics Dashboard | Model Predictions

Model Performance, Through Wk 16

70.9% SU 52.9% ATS 53.4% O/U

754 games • Wk2–16

Straight Up

753 picks

70.9%

534-219

Against the Spread

748 picks

52.9%

387-344-17

Teased +10: 76.8% 567-171-10

Over/Under

747 picks

53.4%

399-348-6

Teased +10: 77.0% 575-172-6

By Location

Away 196-106 64.9%

Home 338-113 74.9%

By Favored Status

Favorite 473-141 77.0%

Underdog 61-78 43.9%

By Location × Favored

Away Dog

40.5%

32-47

Away Favorite

73.5%

164-59

Home Dog

48.3%

29-31

Home Favorite

79.0%

309-82

By Picked Conference

15-3 83.3%

86-22 79.6%

59-17 77.6%

78-23 77.2%

43-17 71.7%

65-30 68.4%

43-23 65.2%

64-36 64.0%

39-22 63.9%

38-23 62.3%

4-3 57.1%

By Pick Location

Away 126-120-10 51.2%

Home 261-224-7 53.8%

5 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

66.0%

487-251-10

(738 picks)

By Pick Side

Favorite 158-128-2 55.2%

Underdog 229-216-15 51.5%

10 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

76.8%

567-171-10

(738 picks)

By Spread Range

0-2.5 66-43-1 60.6%

3-6.5 114-106-4 51.8%

7-13.5 110-102-5 51.9%

>13.5 97-93-7 51.1%

By Location × Side (Performance Highlights)

Away Dog

50.0%

104-104-10

(208 picks)

Away Favorite

57.9%

22-16

(38 picks)

Home Dog

52.7%

125-112-5

(237 picks)

Home Favorite

54.8%

136-112-2

(248 picks)

By Picked Conference

9-3 75.0%

43-29-1 59.7%

38-27-1 58.5%

50-40-2 55.6%

42-35-1 54.5%

48-41-3 53.9%

44-41-1 51.8%

4-4 50.0%

35-37-4 48.6%

38-44-2 46.3%

36-43-2 45.6%

By Pick Direction

Over 107-93-1 53.5%

Under 292-255-5 53.4%

5 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

65.6%

488-256-9

(744 picks)

10 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

77.0%

575-172-6

(747 picks)

By Total Range

<=47 82-80-1 50.6%

48-54 158-139-1 53.2%

55-61 118-96-4 55.1%

>=62 41-33 55.4%

MIAMI 24.6

Jan 19 • 7:30PM ET OU 47.5 Model: 57.5 (o)

IND 32.9

10-2 • ATS: 7-5 • O/U: 4-8

Raw: 25.4 • Mean: 24.6 • Mode: 21

13-0 • ATS: 8-5 • O/U: 8-5

Raw: 32.8 • Mean: 32.9 • Mode: 31

Miami

+260

10-2 • ATS: 7-5 • O/U: 4-8

24.6

Raw: 25.4 • Mean: 24.6 • Mode: 21

+7.5

Jan 19 • 7:30PM ET

O/U 47.5 Model: 57.5 (o)

Indiana

-325

13-0 • ATS: 8-5 • O/U: 8-5

32.9

Raw: 32.8 • Mean: 32.9 • Mode: 31

-7.5

19.8%

80.2%

Model Performance

MIAMI

50.0% ATS · 50.0% O/U · 66.7% SU

IND

50.0% ATS · 41.7% O/U · 83.3% SU

Spread

Money

Total

Hurricanes

+7.5

+260

o47.5

Hit %

50%

67%

50%

Hoosiers

-7.5

-325

u47.5

Hit %

50%

83%

42%

Model Picks

IND -7.5 (-115) 52% Probability

OVER 47.5 (-112) 78% Probability

Safe Picks

IND +2.5 (-437) 66% Probability

OVER 37.5 (-370) 77% Probability

Model Picks

Indiana -7.5 (-115) 52% Probability

OVER 47.5 (-112) 78% Probability

Safe Picks

Indiana +2.5 (-437) 66% Probability

OVER 37.5 (-370) 77% Probability

Overview

MIAMI (SU 11-2)

IND (SU 13-0)

Situational Trends:

ATS: IND 6-4 as a favorite; MIAMI 2-0 as an underdog.
Totals: IND 4-3 at home; MIAMI 1-5 on the road.
O/U After Win/Loss: MIAMI 3-9-0 after win; IND 8-6-0 after win.
SU After Win/Loss: MIAMI 10-2-0 after win; IND 14-0-0 after win.

Key Angles Edge

MIAMI 0

IND 9

Top edges: Explosives, Discipline

Travel / Rest

MIAMI

Rest

18d

Travel

606 mi

IND

Rest

18d

Travel

0 mi

Common Opponents

1 shared

MIAMI

Record

1-0

Avg diff

+10.0

IND

Record

1-0

Avg diff

+3.0

Key Angles

Top 5 / 9 Swipe >

Explosives

IND#134 Opp 10+ Rush Rate

MIAMI#92 Explosive Run Rate
Discipline

IND#119 Penalties / G

MIAMI#67 Opp Penalties / G
Turnovers

IND#112 INTs / G

MIAMI#44 Opp INTs / G
Explosives

IND#117 Opp 20+ Pass Rate

MIAMI#26 Explosive Pass Rate
Pass

IND#12 Opp Pass YPG

MIAMI#23 Pass YPG
Pass

IND#11 Opp Yards/Att

MIAMI#15 Yards/Att
Red Zone

IND#1 Opp RZ TD %

MIAMI#16 RZ TD %
Pace

Tempo (lower faster): MIAMI #13, IND #7
Trend

MIAMI+19.8

IND+23.6

Offensive Projections

Miami

Pass Yards

187

Pass Attempts

Completions

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

Rush TDs

2.4

Turnovers

0.6

Indiana

Pass Yards

235

Pass Attempts

Completions

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

200

Rush Att

Rush TDs

2.9

Turnovers

0.4

First Half

27.7

Indiana -3.5

Second Half

29.2

Indiana -4.0

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Total · OVER 37.5 (-370) · LEAN

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

1/19/27 • 7:30PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Favorite

54.8% hit

ML Segment

Home Favorite

79.0% hit

Model Edge

Spread: HIGH · Total: LEAN

Spread

Indiana +2.5 (-437)

+0.7

Model Prob: 66.0%
Market Implied: 81.4%

Conference Trend

Pick

50-40-2

55.6%

Opponent

48-41-3

53.9%

Total

OVER 37.5 (-370)

+20.0

Model Prob: 77.0%
Market Implied: 78.7%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +0.8
Total Delta: +0.6
Home Residual: +6.6
Away Residual: +2.1
Raw Total: 58.2
Adjusted Total: 57.5

Team Form & Stats

Miami

Record 10-2 · ATS 7-5 · O/U 4-8

Model Score

24.6

Vegas Spread

+7.5

Passing Yds

187

Rushing Yds

187

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush TDs

2.4

Indiana

Record 13-0 · ATS 8-5 · O/U 8-5

Model Score

32.9

Vegas Spread

-7.5

Passing Yds

235

Rushing Yds

200

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush TDs

2.9

Recent Game Log

Miami

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Jan 1, 2026	@ Texas A&M	W 10-3	✓	u
Jan 1, 2026	@ Ohio State	W 24-14	✓	u
Nov 29, 2025	@ Pittsburgh	W 38-7	✓	u
Nov 22, 2025	@ Virginia Tech	W 34-17	✗	o
Nov 15, 2025	vs NC State	W 41-7	✓	u

Indiana

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Jan 1, 2026	vs Alabama	W 38-3	✓	u
Dec 6, 2025	@ Ohio State	W 13-10	✓	u
Nov 28, 2025	@ Purdue	W 56-3	✓	o
Nov 15, 2025	vs Wisconsin	W 31-7	✗	u
Nov 8, 2025	@ Penn State	W 27-24	✗	o

Offensive Projections

Miami

Pass Yards

187

Pass Attempts

Completions

Pass TDs

0.9

Rush Yards

187

Rush Att

Rush TDs

2.4

Turnovers

0.6

Indiana

Pass Yards

235

Pass Attempts

Completions

Pass TDs

1.4

Rush Yards

200

Rush Att

Rush TDs

2.9

Turnovers

0.4

First Half

27.7

Indiana -3.5

Second Half

29.2

Indiana -4.0

Spread Confidence HIGH

Model Probability: 66%

Total Confidence LEAN

Model Probability: 77%

Recommended Bets

TOTAL

OVER 37.5 (-370)

77%

Edge

+20.0 pts

Total Points Analysis

Vegas Line 47.5

Model Play Line 37.5

Model Projection 57.5

Edge OVER by 20.0

OVER 77% Confidence

OVER 77%

23%

UNDER 100% OVER 100%

Spread

Jan 17 5:56a → Jan 19 4:52a Jan 17, 5:56 AM → Jan 19, 4:52 AM

Open

IND Indiana

-8.5

➜

Now

IND Indiana

-7.5

Move

▼-1

Total

Jan 17 5:56a → Jan 19 4:52a Jan 17, 5:56 AM → Jan 19, 4:52 AM

Open

47.5

➜

Now

47.5

Move

💰

Friendly Disclaimer & Tipping Policy 😁

If you lose money: Definitely not my fault - these are just fun numbers from a computer!

If you win big: Obviously my brilliant algorithm deserves all the credit - tips gratefully accepted! 💰

Generated with CFB Advanced Analytics Engine

Data refreshed: 1/19 4:51 AM