NFL Analytics Dashboard | Model Predictions

Model Performance, Through Wk 21

66.5% SU 64.4% ATS 54.9% O/U

284 games • Wk1–21

Straight Up

284 picks

66.5%

189-95

Against the Spread

282 picks

64.4%

179-99-4

Teased +10: 86.1% 241-39-2

Over/Under

284 picks

54.9%

156-128

Teased +10: 81.1% 228-53-3

By Location

Away 79-42 65.3%

Home 110-53 67.5%

By Favored Status

Favorite 181-88 67.3%

Underdog 8-7 53.3%

By Location × Favored

Away Dog

75.0%

6-2

Away Favorite

64.6%

73-40

Home Dog

28.6%

2-5

Home Favorite

69.2%

108-48

By Pick Location

Away 86-49-2 63.7%

Home 93-50-2 65.0%

5 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

76.5%

215-66-1

(281 picks)

By Pick Side

Favorite 86-49-3 63.7%

Underdog 93-50-1 65.0%

10 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

86.1%

241-39-2

(280 picks)

By Spread Range

0-3 72-34-2 67.9%

4-7 69-38-2 64.5%

8-13.5 32-24 57.1%

>13.5 6-3 66.7%

By Location × Side (Performance Highlights)

Away Dog

65.0%

52-28-1

(80 picks)

Away Favorite

61.8%

34-21-1

(55 picks)

Home Dog

65.1%

41-22

(63 picks)

Home Favorite

65.0%

52-28-2

(80 picks)

By Pick Direction

Over 140-120 53.8%

Under 16-8 66.7%

5 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

71.2%

200-81-3

(281 picks)

10 Pt Tease Favoring Model Pick

81.1%

228-53-3

(281 picks)

By Total Range

43-47 69-58 54.3%

48-52 43-30 58.9%

<=42 39-36 52.0%

>52 5-4 55.6%

SEA 24.1

Feb 8 • 6:30 PM ET OU 45.5 Model: 47 (o)

NE 23.1

14-3 • ATS: 12-5 • O/U: 9-8

Raw: 21.4 • Mean: 24.3 • Mode: 20

14-3 • ATS: 12-5 • O/U: 11-6

Raw: 19.4 • Mean: 19.8 • Mode: 17

Seattle

-245

14-3 • ATS: 12-5 • O/U: 9-8

24.1

Raw: 21.4 • Mean: 24.3 • Mode: 20

-5

Feb 8 • 6:30 PM ET

O/U 45.5 Model: 47 (o)

New England

+200

14-3 • ATS: 12-5 • O/U: 11-6

23.1

Raw: 19.4 • Mean: 19.8 • Mode: 17

57.9%

42.1%

Model Performance

SEA

52.6% ATS · 57.9% O/U · 89.5% SU

65.0% ATS · 60.0% O/U · 80.0% SU

Spread

Money

Total

Seahawks

-5

-245

o45.5

Hit %

53%

90%

58%

Patriots

+200

u45.5

Hit %

65%

80%

60%

Model Picks

NE +5 (-108) 68% Probability

OVER 45.5 (-110) 67% Probability

Safe Picks

NE +15 (-430) 86% Probability

OVER 40.5 (-209) 71% Probability

Model Picks

New England +5 (-108) 68% Probability

OVER 45.5 (-110) 67% Probability

Safe Picks

New England +15 (-430) 86% Probability

OVER 40.5 (-209) 71% Probability

Offensive Projections

Seattle

Pass Yards

211

Pass Attempts

Completions

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush Yards

115

Rush Att

Rush TDs

1.1

Turnovers

1.2

New England

Pass Yards

211

Pass Attempts

Completions

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush Yards

100

Rush Att

Rush TDs

1.0

Turnovers

1.0

First Half

19.8

Seattle -1.0

Second Half

20.8

Seattle -1.0

Overview

SEA (SU 16-3)

NE (SU 17-3)

Situational Trends:

ATS: SEA 11-4 as a favorite; NE 4-2 as an underdog.
Totals: NE 7-4 at home; SEA 4-5 on the road.
ATS After Win/Loss: SEA 12-3-0 after win; NE 10-5-1 after win.

Key Angles Edge

SEA 3

NE 4

Top edges: Discipline, Explosives

Weather

60.9F

Temp

5.0 mph

Wind

9.8 mph

Gusts

Precip

Travel / Rest

SEA

Rest

42d

Travel

2908 mi

Rest

Travel

1893 mi

Common Opponents

7 shared

SEA

Record

6-1

Avg diff

+14.4

Record

6-1

Avg diff

+9.1

Key Angles

Top 5 / 9 Swipe >

Discipline

NE#3 Penalties / G

SEA#26 Opp Penalties / G
Explosives

NE#1 Explosive Pass Rate

SEA#11 Opp 20+ Pass Rate
Explosives

SEA#4 Explosive Run Rate

NE#14 Opp 10+ Rush Rate
Trend

SEA+10.4

NE+12.8
Discipline

SEA#19 Penalties / G

NE#25 Opp Penalties / G
Pass

NE#6 Pass YPG

SEA#11 Opp Pass YPG
Pass

SEA#1 Yards/Att

NE#6 Opp Yards/Att
Run

NE#5 Rush YPG

SEA#3 Opp Rush YPG
Red Zone

SEA#17 RZ TD %

NE#18 Opp RZ TD %

Player Props (Sim Distributions)

Quarterbacks Swipe >

D.Maye NE

Att

33(26.4/G)

O 30.5 @ -109 · 60%

Cmp

19(15.2/G)

O 19.5 @ -132 · 51%

Yds

211(177.8/G)

U 222.5 @ -110 · 55%

INT

1(0.4/G)

U 0.5 @ +105 · 54%

RuYd

25(40.8/G)

U 35.5 @ -105 · 63%

1.0(2.0/G)

73%

33%

10%

S.Darnold SEA

Att

32(31.2/G)

O 30.5 @ +105 · 52%

Cmp

19(19.4/G)

U 19.5 @ -108 · 53%

Yds

211(196.2/G)

U 229.5 @ -110 · 57%

INT

1(0.6/G)

O 0.5 @ -126 · 53%

RuYd

5(5.4/G)

U 5.5 @ -108 · 62%

1.1(1.4/G)

80%

40%

13%

Running Backs Swipe >

K.Walker SEA

RushYd

91(85.2/G)

O 72.5 @ -110 · 58%

Rec

3(3.2/G)

O 2.5 @ -132 · 57%

RecYd

30(36.8/G)

O 22.5 @ -115 · 54%

Att

19(16.0/G)

U 18.5 @ -114 · 51%

Ru+ReYd

121(122.0/G)

O 99.5 @ -110 · 60%

0.9(1.0/G)

65%

24%

R.Stevenson NE

RushYd

42(74.4/G)

U 49.5 @ -110 · 59%

Rec

3(2.8/G)

U 3.5 @ -165 · 65%

RecYd

26(32.6/G)

U 24.5 @ -112 · 55%

Att

9(13.2/G)

U 14.5 @ -136 · 72%

Ru+ReYd

67(107.0/G)

U 76.5 @ -114 · 56%

0.5(1.0/G)

40%

T.Henderson NE

RushYd

29(38.4/G)

O 18.5 @ -110 · 52%

Rec

1(0.4/G)

O 0.5 @ -200 · 57%

RecYd

7(1.4/G)

U 6.5 @ -125 · 57%

Att

8(11.2/G)

O 5.5 @ +118 · 55%

Ru+ReYd

36(39.8/G)

U 29.5 @ -120 · 52%

0.4(0.4/G)

23%

R.Shaheed SEA

RushYd

12(11.6/G)

O 4.5 @ -105 · 51%

Rec

1(0.6/G)

U 1.5 @ +110 · 53%

RecYd

18(12.2/G)

U 20.5 @ +105 · 56%

Att

1(0.8/G)

O 0.5 @ -190 · 58%

Ru+ReYd

30(23.8/G)

U 30.5 @ -111 · 53%

0.2(0.0/G)

18%

Receivers Swipe >

J.Smith-Njigba SEA

Rec

6(7.2/G)

U 6.5 @ +120 · 52%

Yds

62(84.8/G)

U 91.5 @ -110 · 63%

0.4(0.6/G)

42%

C.Kupp SEA

Rec

4(3.0/G)

U 3.5 @ -143 · 51%

Yds

53(34.4/G)

O 34.5 @ -115 · 54%

0.3(0.2/G)

25%

S.Diggs NE

Rec

5(4.0/G)

U 4.5 @ +105 · 51%

Yds

41(43.4/G)

U 44.5 @ -105 · 57%

0.2(0.4/G)

24%

H.Henry NE

Rec

3(2.8/G)

U 3.5 @ +105 · 56%

Yds

32(37.2/G)

U 38.5 @ -109 · 59%

0.2(0.4/G)

21%

M.Hollins NE

Rec

2(3.6/G)

U 2.5 @ -158 · 62%

Yds

30(42.8/G)

U 26.5 @ -113 · 56%

0.1(0.0/G)

12%

K.Boutte NE

Rec

2(2.2/G)

U 2.5 @ -141 · 61%

Yds

30(37.4/G)

U 30.5 @ -109 · 57%

0.1(0.2/G)

17%

A.Barner SEA

Rec

1(2.2/G)

U 2.5 @ +128 · 59%

Yds

18(23.8/G)

U 24.5 @ -105 · 61%

0.1(0.4/G)

17%

D.Douglas NE

Rec

1(1.4/G)

U 1.5 @ -203 · 64%

Yds

17(16.8/G)

U 10.5 @ -110 · 51%

0.1(0.2/G)

10%

J.Bobo SEA

Rec

1(1.0/G)

U 0.5 @ -190 · 58%

Yds

12(13.3/G)

U 0.5 @ -192 · 58%

0.0(0.3/G)

K.Williams NE

Rec

1(1.4/G)

U 0.5 @ -200 · 57%

Yds

10(21.2/G)

U 0.5 @ -220 · 57%

0.1(0.4/G)

E.Saubert SEA

Rec

0(1.0/G)

U 0.5 @ -210 · 70%

Yds

5(8.3/G)

U 0.5 @ -220 · 69%

0.0(0.0/G)

E.Arroyo SEA

Rec

0(1.8/G)

U 0.5 @ +105 · 74%

Yds

2(17.4/G)

U 0.5 @ -125 · 75%

0.0(0.2/G)

Betting Overview

BEST BET · Spread · New England +15 (-430) · STRONG

Top recommended play highlighted below.

Kickoff

2/8/26 • 6:30 PM ET

ATS Segment

Home Dog

65.1% hit

ML Segment

Away Favorite

64.6% hit

Model Edge

Spread: STRONG · Total: WATCH

Spread

New England +15 (-430)

+0.4

Historical Prob: 86.1%
Raw Model: 77.8%
Market Implied: 81.1%

Total

OVER 40.5 (-209)

+6.7

Historical Prob: 71.2%
Raw Model: 85.5%
Market Implied: 67.6%

Residual Adjustments

Margin Delta: +2.0
Total Delta: —
Home Residual: -3.8
Away Residual: +1.8
Raw Total: 40.8
Adjusted Total: 47.2

Team Form & Stats

Seattle

Record 14-3 · ATS 12-5 · O/U 9-8

Model Score

24.1

Vegas Spread

-5

Passing Yds

211

Rushing Yds

115

Pass TDs

1.1

Rush TDs

1.1

New England

Record 14-3 · ATS 12-5 · O/U 11-6

Model Score

23.1

Vegas Spread

Passing Yds

211

Rushing Yds

100

Pass TDs

1.0

Rush TDs

1.0

Recent Game Log

Seattle

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Dec 28, 2025	@ Carolina	W 27-10	✓	u
Dec 18, 2025	vs LA Rams	W 31-27	✓	o
Dec 18, 2025	vs LA Rams	W 38-37	✗	o
Dec 14, 2025	vs Indianapolis	W 18-16	✗	u
Dec 7, 2025	@ Atlanta	W 37-9	✓	o

New England

Last 5

Date	Opp	Score	ATS	O/U
Feb 5, 2026	@ Denver	W 10-7	✗	u
Jan 18, 2026	vs Houston	W 28-16	✓	o
Jan 18, 2026	vs LA Chargers	W 16-3	✓	u
Dec 28, 2025	@ NY Jets	W 42-10	✓	o
Dec 21, 2025	@ Baltimore	W 28-24	✓	o

Spread

Jan 26 6:30p → Feb 8 3:06a Jan 26, 6:30 PM → Feb 8, 3:06 AM

Open

SEA Seattle

-4.5

➜

Now

SEA Seattle

-4.5

Move

Total

Jan 26 6:30p → Feb 8 3:06a Jan 26, 6:30 PM → Feb 8, 3:06 AM

Open

45.5

➜

Now

45.5

Move

💰

Friendly Disclaimer & Tipping Policy 😁

If you lose money: Definitely not my fault - these are just fun numbers from a computer!

If you win big: Obviously my brilliant algorithm deserves all the credit - tips gratefully accepted! 💰

Generated with NFL Advanced Analytics Engine

Data refreshed: 2/8 3:18 AM